Longevity

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Roundup: Obesity, Other Factors Projected to Slow Growth in U.S. Life Expectancy Rate; and More News

Improving U.S. Life Expectancy Expected to Slow Down, Compared to Other Countries, Concerning Study Finds

Life expectancy in the U.S. is improving at a much slower rate than in other countries, and the nation’s global ranking is expected to continue its decline over the next few decades, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington in Seattle.

Life expectancy (LE) in the U.S. is projected to rise from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years by 2050, an increase of just over two years. While that might sound like progress, it’s important to note that these modest gains are not enough to keep pace with global health advancements. In fact, the U.S. is expected to fall from 49th place in the world in 2022 to 66th place by 2050, slipping behind countries that have made greater strides in health outcomes, researchers found.

This stagnation in life expectancy improvements is a worrying sign of deeper issues. While mortality rates have declined for some major causes of death such as heart disease, cancer, and stroke, these reductions are overshadowed by the rising rates of chronic diseases and unhealthy lifestyle factors that contribute to rising rates of obesity.

The Growing Impact of Obesity

One of the main drivers of the decline in health is the increasing prevalence of obesity, a condition linked to many chronic diseases, including diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers. The study warns that by 2050, more than 260 million people in the U.S. are expected to be affected by obesity, which will significantly impact both life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.

If obesity rates continue to increase at their current pace, the U.S. will see a drastic reduction in the number of years people live in good health. The country’s ranking for healthy life expectancy (HALE)—which accounts for the number of years someone can expect to live without major health issues—is forecast to fall from 80th in 2022 to 108th by 2050.

The study also highlights a troubling gender gap in the U.S. When it comes to life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, women are falling behind faster than men. In particular, female HALE is projected to decline in 20 states by 2050, including in Ohio, Tennessee, and Indiana. Only a few states, such as Arizona and North Dakota, are expected to see any improvements in women's health outcomes.

Globally, U.S. women’s life expectancy is forecast to drop to 74th place by 2050, down from 19th place in 1990. For men, life expectancy is also expected to decline, with U.S. males falling from 35th in 1990 to 65th in 2050.

Researchers also emphasize another alarming trend. “From 1990 to 2021, the U.S. recorded an 878 percent increase in the mortality rate (from 2.0 deaths to 19.5 deaths per 100,000) from drug use disorders, including from opioid use disorder, amphetamine use disorder, cocaine use disorder, and a group of other drug use disorders,” states a news release on the study from the University of Washington.

Can Changing Behaviors Make a Difference?

While the outlook may seem bleak, there are still opportunities for improvement. The study suggests that if major risk factors like obesity, high blood pressure, and high blood sugar could be reduced, millions of lives could be saved by 2050. For instance, if smoking rates were reduced to the lowest levels seen in the U.S., 2.1 million deaths could be prevented by 2050. Similarly, reducing high “body mass index” (BMI) and high blood sugar levels could prevent 1.4 million deaths.

The researchers conclude with a call to action: The U.S. must implement stronger public health policies to reverse these troubling trends. The country needs new strategies to address rising obesity rates, drug use, and other health risks. If these issues aren’t addressed, the U.S. will continue to slide down the global rankings in life expectancy and health outcomes.

How Prevention and Screening Saved Millions of Lives: A Look at Five Major Cancers

Over the past 45 years, significant strides in cancer prevention and screening have played a pivotal role in saving lives—more so than treatment advancements alone. A groundbreaking modeling study led by researchers at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) highlights the impact of prevention and early detection strategies on reducing deaths from five of the most common cancers: breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate.

Published in JAMA Oncology, the study underscores the importance of combining these strategies with treatment to effectively lower cancer mortality rates.

Between 1975 and 2020, prevention and screening efforts are estimated to have averted 4.75 million deaths from these five cancers, accounting for 80 percent of the total 5.94 million deaths prevented.

These findings challenge the common perception that treatment breakthroughs are the primary reason behind declining cancer death rates. In fact, researchers found that eight out of ten lives saved in this period were due to improvements in prevention and screening methods, with prevention accounting for the largest share of the reduction.

Cancer-Specific Contributions

The study broke down the contributions of prevention, screening, and treatment for each cancer type:

  • Breast Cancer: While mammography and early treatment have played a major role, treatment advances contributed most to the 1 million deaths averted from breast cancer. These advancements in chemotherapy, hormone therapy, and targeted treatments account for about 75 percent of the lives saved.

  • Lung Cancer: Tobacco control, particularly smoking cessation programs, was the primary factor in reducing lung cancer deaths. Smoking prevention efforts accounted for an incredible 98 percent of the 3.45 million deaths prevented from lung cancer. Treatment advances accounted for the remaining 2 percent.

  • Cervical Cancer: Screening has been the key to preventing cervical cancer deaths. Pap smears, HPV testing, and the removal of precancerous lesions have led to a dramatic reduction in mortality, preventing 160,000 deaths over the study period.

  • Colorectal Cancer: Colorectal cancer saw substantial improvements in survival due to screening programs that detect and remove precancerous polyps. These efforts accounted for 79 percent of the 940,000 deaths averted, with treatment advances contributing the remaining 21 percent.

  • Prostate Cancer: Screening via PSA testing was the most effective prevention method for prostate cancer, contributing to 56 percent of the 360,000 deaths averted. Advances in treatment, such as surgery and radiation, helped save the remaining 44 percent.

The study’s findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach to cancer control—one that integrates prevention, screening, and treatment. “It’s not just treatment advances alone, or prevention and screening alone, that is helping us reduce cancer mortality,” said Katrina A. B. Goddard, Ph.D., a co-lead investigator of the study, in a statement. “We need to continue strengthening strategies in all these areas.”

Study: Short Bursts of Physical Activity Can Reduce Heart Disease Risk

A recent study from the UK Biobank, which followed over 22,000 participants over several years, examined how daily “vigorous intermittent lifestyle physical activity” or VILPA affected the risk of heart disease. The study found a strong link between VILPA and a reduced risk of a major cardiovascular event, such as heart attack or stroke, particularly for individuals who did not engage in more normal moderate-paced exercise routines..

For people who engaged in VILPA — whether it was climbing stairs, brisk walking, or carrying heavy groceries — the research showed that even small, short bursts of intense activity could lead to better heart health outcomes. Importantly, these findings suggest that you don’t need to run long distances or spend hours at the gym to protect your heart. A few minutes of intense activity throughout the day may be enough.

The study, published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, also examined whether the benefits of VILPA varied between men and women.

Researchers found that women who engaged in just 90 seconds to 4 minutes of vigorous physical activity (like brisk stair climbing or carrying heavy items) daily reduced their risk of major cardiovascular events by up to 40 percent, including heart attack and heart failure.

The cardiovascular benefits were more pronounced in women who did not engage in regular structured exercise, with their risk of heart attack and heart failure dropping by 33 percent and 40 percent, respectively. Men saw smaller reductions, with only an 11-16 percent lower risk of major cardiovascular events.

The study suggests that short bursts of vigorous, everyday physical activity could offer significant cardiovascular protection for women who aren’t able or willing to engage in formal exercise, emphasizing the importance of incorporating some intensity into daily life.

The researchers followed adults aged 61 on average, who wore activity trackers for a week. They also tracked hospital admissions and deaths from heart attack, stroke, and heart failure over nearly eight years.

For years, public health advice has focused on longer bouts of structured physical activity (running, cycling, or gym workouts). While these activities are very beneficial, many people find them hard to stick with, especially if they’re middle-aged or just starting to get active. Studies have shown that regular VILPA can significantly improve heart health, particularly when it comes to reducing major adverse cardiovascular events, which include non-fatal strokes, heart attacks, heart failure, and cardiovascular deaths.

Healthcare that Cares

With internationally renowned centers of excellence, 12 hospitals, more than 28,000 employees, 4,500 physicians and 200 outpatient centers, urgent care facilities and physician practices spanning Miami-Dade, Monroe, Broward and Palm Beach counties, Baptist Health is an anchor institution of the South Florida communities we serve.

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